It’s probably going to happen in June like they said, it’s just a matter of how long before something really bad happens and they have to stop, because something bad is probably going to happen. But it probably is imminent, temporarily.

Slay the spire is really fun and different than what you’ve listed.

It was the first rogue like deck building game. Fantastically done.

Putting my LG G Flex which had a boot loop problem due to a soldering issue on the battery solved the problem temporarily!

Edit: oh also that was the freezer

Their insurance is (was?) kind of like that as well if you get the saftey score one. While some things are more general and concrete like following distance, time of day driving, they have one for forward collision warnings.

I’m not sure how much time you’ve spent in a Tesla, but that system is notorious for going off incorrectly. It’s specifically really bad with parked cars on the side of the road on turns. So you’re driving along a city street with cars parked on the side and it goes off and now your insurance premiums are more expensive.

I don’t think you could find a single Tesla owner who hasn’t had multiple false warnings, and consistently in certain circumstances.

So someone of course starts a lawsuit and Tesla initially defends itself, but just last week or something like that, it’s no longer part of the safety score

It goes further than that. They can track how people interact with the page, order of buttons pressed, if or when they abort a workflow etc. You can go as deep down the rabbit hole of analytics and optimizations as you want.

I’d want whatever the warranty was to be the same plus the miles.

So if it’s 5 year 50k miles and I get it at 1k, I 'd want 5 year 51k miles.

Even at these lower prices, Tesla makes more money on their EVs than their competitors. That’s part of why the others haven’t been able to expand and compete as quickly. Expanding an expensive vehicle becomes a bigger liability as you have less pricing room. GM is only planning to have their first EV profitable year this year, and I’ll believe it when I see it.

The Cybertruck is probably another story though, I don’t know if that’s profitable at the lower than expected sales rate.

Edit: E.g the Bolt everyone loves from GM never made GM money. That’s why they didn’t sell more. They did learn from it though so it wasn’t a total loss for them.

Samsung: god damnit, now we have to use the $0.30 washer instead of the $0.29 washer and itll last at least 10 years longer!

That’s 10s of millions in extra sales lost!

The only people he’s going to have to upgrade are those who purchased it. In the past there’s been some small claims court cases where someone won about being upgraded for a subscription, but if that is truly a concern, Tesla could stop the subscriptions for a few years and let the cars age out. They have no obligations to offer a subscription, it wasn’t a thing when the original promise was made.

Also, they only need to upgrade cars when it’d actually be capable. The promise is to upgrade cars to capable hardware, not upgrade cars with every hardware iteration, so as long as hw4 can’t actually do it, they’re likely in the clear as well.

Given most people don’t think they can actually make fsd work, then they’re in the clear.

If they somehow make it work, the upgrade cost is going to be peanuts compared to the insane amount of money they’d start printing.

So it’s not much if a story.

Edit: also worth mentioning, he’s been pretty clear over the years that FSD is going to cost a lot more money once it’s available for real. So if he does have to upgrade everyone who pays for it (lets assume they stop subscriptions to avoid that issue), even if that means upgrading all HW4 cars as well because it needs HW5, he can jack the price up more to help cover the upgrade cost. No one should be under the illusion that purchasing FSD will be cheaper than it is today if they succeed.

I’m pretty much on board with getting rid of software patents as they are absolutely ridiculous, but I don’t think we should necessarily get rid of the rest, but they do require reform.

Yikes that’s a bad rate.

It would be nice to get rid of it, but it will cost a lot more money that no one wants to pay even if it’s actually a good use of it.

The Cybertruck doesn’t violate any US laws, there’s nothing to disallow it, and independent testing gave it 5 star saftey rating.

And while OEMs do self certify, they get spot checked to ensure compliance. There’s too many new vehicles and variants for the NHSTA/EPA etc. to ever check every single one in detail.

Edit: and if you really wanna get into it, most of the other OEMs everyone wants to love actually put defeat devices for said spot checking to lie and kill us sooner with bad air for $$$

Next thing you know he’s going to say WordPress isn’t used by anyone.

Hey Tobi, why do need to pay you any bonus moving forward? What did you do the AI couldn’t?

The thing about business though is you need to be able to derisk your business from a single failure point.

Tesla has a lot of battery cell supply and now production, and they use that supply chain to build commercial batteries. That’s taking 1 thing you’re good at (batteries) and then branching out to help build a new revenue business. Now their energy business is beginning to boom after years of being somewhat sidelined for cars, but now that cars are about to suffer heavily, the commercial battery business helps protect them.

FSD and Optimus are the same but aren’t paying off yet. Let’s say tesla never actually achieves FSD. They still end up with a very advanced level 2 system, that they could maybe pivot into a level 3 on highway only system. Or maybe it will only ever be a level 2 system.

But they’ve spent all these billions building the training network infrastructure (hardware and software), as well as seeing if they can maybe build specialized training compute to internally compete with NVidia (v2 of dojo might he competitive but we don’t know yet)

But it’s a shit load of money going into this, so how do you derisk it? You find another product to use the technology. Enter Optimus. It uses the same FSD computer. The same vision based neural network that billions of dollars has been spent training, in a less human saftey risk than cars (e.g a robot carrying a box is less risk than a car going 75mph and malfunctioning into a multi car accident) and aside from the hardware needing to be cost effective, should be a easier problem to solve with technology today. It also leverages Teslas’ manufacturing capabilities.

So the “should just go back to cars” kind of mindset removes these kind of de risking side ventures.

I absolutely agree they should get back on the plan of more vehicles and less focus on robotaxi cars until FSD is actually real, but it’s these side things that keep a business healthy and protected from something like 25% auto tarrifs.

Further, they have so much cash on hand even with these expensive ventures and are very profitable so using the cash to expand like this is prudent.

Edit: just another non Tesla example… Stellantis is partnering with Archer Aviation to help manufacture their eVTOL planes. They’re using their manufacturing expertise to do something else which will help derisk them.

They still sold 330,000 cars even with all the drops and model y changeover on a quarter that’s always the weakest in the year.

It would have to get much much much worse to make them not profitable on the cars, and not be able to sustain the difference from their energy business.

Maybe sales under 1 million for the whole year for something like no profit? But maybe not even then?

Edit: in 2017 The model 3 ramp was profitable at 5k a week in Fremont, and the car is cheaper to make today.

It’s less the 40b and more how profitable the vehicles are.

They have a lot of room for reduced sales, they could cut an entire shift and be okay profitability wise. The 40b allows them, If they wanted to still try and grow with the reduced sales. That could last for many years if needed in that case, but if shit hit the fan and they decided to grow less and optimize for further reduced costs the could probably keep the 40b much longer.

Edit: And they sell more than cars to generate more profit. Energy business is growing and less (bit not zero) impact from his craziness as commercial stuff cares less.

Tesla has something like 40b in cash, and makes more profit on their vehicles than everyone, even at these lower prices, except for companies like Porsche.

You could probably halve their total sales and they’d still be fine financially.

The stock would be another story though.

Q1 vs Q1 Tesla is up in China, it was something tiny like less than 2% though where q1 2024 was already low.

They’re still down pretty much everywhere else though.

Generally speaking, picking individual months is pretty meaningless.

So there were some military contracts that were just awarded.

54 missions total:

SpaceX: 28 missions, $5.9 B = $210.7 M per launch

ULA: 19 missions, $5.4 B = $284 M per launch

BO: 7 missions, $2.4 B = $342.9 M per launch

SpaceX did get the most money, but they were also the cheapest provider due to their reusable 1st stages.

Just with those 9 extra launches over ULA SpaceX saves the US government and taxpayers 668 million dollars.

If SpaceX didn’t exist, it would have been 8 2 billion more but actually worse since the other providers can’t supply that much and wouldn’t have had as much competitive incentive. Just look at BO the next one which was almost 60m more than ULA. It easily could have ballooned to 4b more adding a 3rd even more expensive option.

Doesn’t seem so self dealing to me, they were able to bid lower and win more, and saved, (I’m assuming you given your rage upset) a shit load of money.

This is what SpaceX has been doing for years, well before he got in bed with Trump.