German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.
They barely could handle a war with small Ukraine, a full scale war with NATO is a no-go; and I’m quite certain Putin won’t live that long
Presidents have access to the best medical resources, and Putin seems to be in fine shape. He could live 10 more years. I’m saying that in the hope of a pleasant surprise.
But with Trump on his side, he might make some progress.
Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot to take on the entirety of Europe, who, likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
I’m sure Trump would do what he is doing with Ukraine now, and what America has done in the past. Provide assistance for a massive cost.
I hope Putin dies before that. And in such a personal regime his dead and the consequent fight for power could lead to big changes in Russia.
So let’s hope Zelensky was right, and it’s sooner than later.
His replacement is going to have to do something big to legitimize their rule
Wouldn’t Russia have to suddenly produce a lot more young men who are still alive to invade any more countries?
Men who are still alive
Oh no… Putin found Dunharrow. Being alive isn’t needed.
Why produce when you can kidnap and pressgang from Ukraine?
If only they had an asset in the US who could provide those.
Not surprised. The level of European alarm about the Russian threat being real has been greater than what could have been sustained without there being secret direct evidence.
Here’s hoping when he does that and immediately starts to lose, he doesn’t decide to end the world.
Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin’s nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia’s nukes are more or less a bluff.
This is an incredibly dangerous assumption. According to the Federation of American Scientists Russia has a stockpile of 4489 warheads of which some 1674 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles.[1] A large part of these warheads might be defective but realistically you only need a handful of working ones. Russia also has the necessary material and infrastructure to keep their warheads in working order.[2] So while their capabilities compared to the USSR are greatly diminished there is no reason to assume that Russias nukes are all in non-working condition.
[1] https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/
[2] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-10/features/breakdown-breakout-us-and-russian-warhead-production-capabilities
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/europa-krieg-szenarien-bnd-bundeswehr-li.3227229
translation
Germany’s supreme soldier is convinced that Russia is preparing for a great war. Even after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, Germany has no time “to take a deep breath”, says the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer. Russia continues to upgrade and has doubled the number of soldiers compared to pre-war times. The Russian military structure is clearly against the West. Therefore, an end to the war on Ukraine will not lead to “we have peace again on the European continent,” he said in the talk show “Maischberger” recently.
This coincides with the assessment of Jörg Schmitt, the deputy head of the investigative department of the Süddeutsche Zeitung. Together with colleagues from WDR and NDR, he was able to evaluate the situation analyses of the BND and the Bundeswehr. By the end of the decade, Russia could create the conditions for a large-scale conventional war against NATO, regardless of the war in Ukraine.
According to these sources, Moscow could try to test the Nato with various scenarios, says Schmitt. For example, by provocations in the Baltic region or in the Arctic. Vladimir Putin is concerned with exploring the US’s responsiveness and assistanceUSA.
